Bayesian Career Risk Instrument
Set a base rate from your situation, then weigh each signal by how much more likely it'd show up if a layoff were actually coming. The instrument multiplies the odds and tells you where you stand — and roughly when the math favors moving.
Sets the prior: your starting probability before any current evidence. Defaults are illustrative anchors, not researched statistics — adjust the numbers on the right to match what you actually know.
right column = log-odds multiplier applied to the base rate — 1.0 changes nothing
Leave anything at its neutral option if it doesn't apply — neutral contributes nothing to the update. Numbers are likelihood ratios: how many times more likely you'd see this signal if layoffs were coming, versus not. Edit any of them.
Translates probability into a stay-or-go read, in months of income as the common unit.